Altcoin season has remained elusive despite expectations that it would have begun early in 2025. This has led to calls that there has been a change in the cycle and perhaps the concept of an altcoin season no longer applies. The Bitcoin dominance has also remained quite high during this time, with altcoins falling rapidly with each decline. However, the Altcoin Season Index is currently pointing to a possible bottom for altcoins.
Altcoin Season Index Bounces From Low Score Of 11
The Altcoin Season Index is an index which ranks the performance of the top 50 altcoins against the performance of Bitcoin on a scale of 1-100. In the case where the top 50 coins are performing better than Bitcoin on a 90-day period, it is considered altcoin season. Whereas in the case where the Bitcoin price is still outperforming the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, then it is considered a Bitcoin season.
Presently, the Bitcoin price is still well ahead of the top 50 altcoins, as shown by its dominance still ranging above 65%. This has significantly reduced the chances of an alt season as the focus is still heavily on Bitcoin during this time. Even more concerning is the fact that the Bitcoin price has continued to outperform Ethereum, which is often the leader of the altcoin season.
According to data from Blockchain Center, the Altcoin Season Index is currently sitting at a low score of 27 at the time of this writing. This remains quite low but has been a major step-up from the low score of 11 that was recorded back in June following the market crash.
Usually, when the index is this low, it often signals that the end of the downtrend is close and the bottom could be in. However, there could still be some ways to go, given that historically, the index has bottomed below 10 before the alt season begins.
This is seen throughout the history of the market, where the altcoin index had fallen below 8 back in 2020 before the legendary altcoin season of 2021. Then again, bottoming at a score of 4 back in 2023 before the 2024 rally.
Nevertheless, the index being this low does suggest that the bottom is either in or will be in soon. The next step would be a decline in the Bitcoin dominance, likely toward the 40% territory, and Ethereum outperforming the Bitcoin price to fully signal the entrance of the altcoin season.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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