Sky Sports Racing’s senior form analyst Jamie Lynch previews a mouth-watering renewal of the premier Classic at Epsom on Saturday.
This isn’t a Betfred Derby (3.30, Saturday) which needs a narrative nor revolves around a racehorse, as instead the story is the race itself, a feeling of the Derby refreshingly and reassuringly reclaiming some ground by virtue of the deep and distinctive field of 19 runners coming to it for clarification and coronation, the finest filter in racing.
An assembly point for the winners of the Guineas and every other meaningful trial in Britain and Ireland, along with lingering links to the juvenile class, plus a pinch of Franch flavour, the 2025 Derby has it all. Let’s look in depth at the stacked line-up.
1) Al Wasl Storm (Stall 13)
Jockey: David Probert | Trainer: Owen Burrows
Owner has peppered the outer bull with several Derby longshots but none of them were quite so far removed in ratings terms as Al Wasl Storm, having won a mere Chester maiden – he’d be getting two stone off the principals were this a handicap.
2) Damysus (15)
James Doyle | John & Thady Gosden
Going for gold after getting bronze in the Sandown Classic Trial and silver in the Dante, lack of awareness as much as ability the reason he didn’t win either, slower in the transmission than Pride Of Arras at York but marginally the faster of the pair through the final two furlongs.
We don’t know how good he is, and neither does he, undefined because he’s unrefined, but there’s a chance the trip is the making of him, out of a Prix de Royaumont winner. He has all the ingredients of a Derby protagonist if he handles Epsom, though that’s quite a big ‘if’ in his incipient state.
3) Delacroix (14)
Ryan Moore | Aidan O’Brien
In a stable of ready-made rockets, his development has instead been moderate and methodical, more analogue than digital, more tortoise than hair, and you get the impression he was never fated nor favoured as such, yet here he is, captain of the A-team.
True, there’s been a slice more oomph about him this year in winning the Ballysax and Derrinstown but at the same time his prospects depend less on him and more on what type of Derby this is: if there’s nothing to run much higher than 120 then his functionality and fortitude is likely to get him home just about in front, untried at a mile-and-a-half but long since looking a stayer.
4) Green Storm (8)
Billy Loughnane | Charlie Johnston
Incremental improvement at two, but it was a hollow second (of just three) in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, behind Tennessee Stud. Even acknowledging the excuses for his comeback – did too much too soon in the Feilden – there’s little to think he can impact in a Derby, even if he does stay the trip, out of a Ribblesdale winner.
5) Lambourn (10)
Wayne Lordan | Aidan O’Brien
He’s not packing the rating nor the potential to win a Derby, at least not on the face of it, but we’ve said that before of Ballydoyle bit-parters who’ve triumphed, and it’s interesting that, in his Epsom preview article on attheraces.com, Simon Rowlands has identified Lambourn as being a sweet-spot strider for the race.
The Chester Vase answered some fundamental questions that his rivals have hanging over them, but he never really laid a glove on team-mate Delacroix the time before.
6) Lazy Griff (3)
Christophe Soumillon | Charlie Johnston
Signed off last season with a Group 3 graduation in France and picked up where he left off by giving Lambourn a race in the Chester Vase. He’s the tooled-up type who’ll beat more than beats him at Epsom, but a top-three finish is out of reach on everything we know, more exposed than most.
7) Midak (4)
Mickael Barzalona | Francis-Henri Graffard
There’s a faint whiff of Pour Moi about him as a ‘dark’ horse who enters Epsom via the Prix Greffulhe, only starting later and climbing steeper, surprisingly so, needing to be supplemented, significant given that Francis-Henri Graffard has won 11 of the 35 Group races in France in 2025 including two Group 1s, not to mention what Graffard generals Calandagan and Goliath did when coming over last year.
This is an away fixture for Midak in every sense, for class not just country, but he’s well balanced and well blessed with the sort of Aga Khan pedigree that will see him shine all the brighter for a mile-and-a-half, and the form-lines make him at least the equivalent of a secondary trial winner in Britain or Ireland, having beaten Uther who himself beat Nitoi who would have been much shorter than 20-1 for the French Derby but for the worst of the draw.
8) New Ground (17)
Alexis Pouchin | Henri Devin
Rated the same as Midak by the French handicapper but he’s still looking up, set too much to do in the Prix de Suresnes (ran the fastest of the field in each of the last four furlongs) and, before then, in the Prix La Force, finishing hot on the heels of Cualificar and Azimpour, who both ran very well in Sunday’s Prix du Jockey Club. He’s bred to stay a mile-and-a-half, from a stout Juddmonte family, that of Armiger, and though compatriot Midak might be sexier, New Ground shouldn’t be twice his price.
9) Nightime Dancer (9)
Jamie Spencer | Richard Hannon
Shaping up to be a Group horse, but not a Classic horse, those dreams deflated by the Derby Trial at Lingfield, only third to Puppet Master, reducing him to a token runner here, though you’d have said that about Richard Hannon’s maiden Mojo Star in 2021 and he was second in the Derby at 50-1.
10) Nightwalker (5)
Tom Marquand | John & Thady Gosden
Fifth in the Dante, but would have been third in a few more strides, hinting at the stamina within: he’s bred along identical lines to St Leger winner Logician. What has looked immaturity maybe something more sinister by now, and he’s a sink or swimmer, no in between on a track like this, but there’s a big performance in him if everything clicks and circumstances stimulate him.
11) Pride Of Arras (16)
Rossa Ryan | Ralph Beckett
The average rating of the Dante winner for the prior five years was 114, so Pride Of Arras’s 115 slots him a notch above the norm. But was the race, and therefore the performance, really that good? A modest time reflected an uneven gallop, while the favourite flopped, and the proximity of the 80-1 fourth attaches some strings to the form.
However, even if the contextual canvas might be flimsy, the individual brushstroke was vivid and valid, only his second start, and at a time when the stable had barely tickled another trial. Bred for a mile-and-a-half, he’s one of the handful in here who could become a true top-notcher, if leaning more on potential than the others in his price realm.
12) Rogue Impact (1)
Luke Morris | James Owen
Flunked the mock exam in the Lingfield Derby Trial, last of six, and as such he can only be described as a no-hoper in here.
13) Ruling Court (7)
William Buick | Charlie Appleby
Coolmore’s M. V. Magnier paid $475,000 for the weanling by Justify out of Inchargeofme at Keeneland November Sale. Unfortunately for them, the year was 2020, and the colt never made it to the track. Fast forward to 2025 when the same cross for the rival outfit has got a shot at becoming the 37th horse in history to complete the Guineas-Derby double, Godolphin having gone as high as $2.3m to get him on the team at last year’s Arqana Breeze-Ups, when none other than Coolmore was the underbidder.
Ireland confirmed what we already suspected, that beating Field Of Gold in a Guineas takes some doing, whatever the tactical nuances, and Ruling Court would be odds-on to take care of this lot at a mile and still a heavy favourite at a mile-and-a-quarter. But what about a mile-and-a-half? That’s the make-or-break question.
You can seek clues in striding analysis and in his pedigree (not really say most family members), but only the Derby has the pulling power for him to even try at his stage, which is worth trumpeting at a time when the race and the place feel a little anachronistic. The facts take us only so far, forcing feelings onto Ruling Court, and I’ve just got a feeling that he’s more Roaring Lion than Sea The Stars.
14) Sea Scout (18)
Harry Davies | Simon & Ed Crisford
Has already upset one Epsom apple cart, 40-1 when winning the Blue Riband Trial, but a truer trial in the Dante showed him up all the more, out of his pay grade in a race like this.
15) Stanhope Gardens (2)
Hector Crouch | Ralph Beckett
The Derby is partially in his blood given his uncle is Romsdal who was third to Australia in 2014, as well as second in a Leger, a pointer to the potentially transformative effect of stamina on a horse who has so far raced only up to a mile. As far as references go, he can submit his neck second to Delacroix in last year’s Autumn Stakes as justification for this job, and there’d have been more noise around him but for some thunder stealing by stable-companion Pride Of Arras at York. If there’s a surprise package in this year’s Derby, then it’s probably him.
16) Tennessee Stud (12)
Dylan Browne McMonagle | Joseph O’Brien
When is a Group 1 not a Group 1? When it was the 2024 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, almost a penalty kick for Tennessee Stud against just two inferior rivals, but to focus on what that race lacked is to forget about how well he ran in the Beresford at the Curragh where he gave a fright to Hotazhell, making for a closer relationship with Delacroix than was the case in his needy comeback in the Derrinstown. Sitting on a peak performance, from a stable going gangbusters, he’s a lively longshot to make the three.
17) The Lion In Winter (19)
Colin Keane | Aidan O’Brien
The Lion, the switch, and the draw woe. The wild swingometer has settled in the lukewarm zone after the double disappointment of drawing stall 19 and, maybe related, Ryan Moore opting for Delacroix. Strictly speaking, it’s the perception not the prospect of him winning the Derby that has changed, the priced aligned to the former, as always with multiple entries from a stable, and the argument for him hangs high on the twin towers of the Acomb (in which he beat Ruling Court) and the last two Derbys whereby O’Brien has salvaged a diamond from the reappearance rubble.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, York in August or York in May, the case for the prosecution and the defence can be made equally vehemently regards The Lion In Winter, and nobody would be in the slightest surprised if he won, not least Ryan Moore, but the bottom line is that he’s an easier horse to talk about than to back with hard cash.
18) Tornado Alert (11)
Oisin Murphy | Saeed bin Suroor
The most anonymous horse going into the Guineas but he was beaten only by the first three in the betting, though it was speed rather than stamina that got him there, hardly looking a horse who’d be going onto the Derby, for all his half-brother Just Fine won a Group 1 in Australia over a mile-and-a-half.
19) Tuscan Hills (6)
David Egan | Raphael Freire
Groundwork at two was that of a Group horse, winning both his starts, and held his own for a long way in the Dante on his return, but this is another level again, while he’s not a certain stayer, either, for all that his grandam was Oaks winner Eswarah.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict…
In the game of Derby Deal Or No Deal, Ryan Moore has dealt on something around 122, the roundabout rating you’d bank on DELACROIX running to, given his tools and trajectory. There are several boxes that may well contain a higher number, in which case the Derby is theirs, but each has some doubts, stamina for Ruling Court, form for Pride Of Arras and well-being for The Lion In Winter. Yes, Delacroix is the boring option, in a sense, but doing boring things without getting bored is a competitive advantage: and that sounds like a Ryan Moore mantra.
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